corvi 19

[markcw]

Like Mike has mentioned, people were being allowed back into this country unchecked,
We should have locked down airports and sea entry and checked everyone coming in, taken details of where been and where going to. Any tested positive put into isolation until cleared negative.
It is only now it seems are people being tested,

 

[The Runner]

I know a lot of the criticisms are with the benefit of hindsight but as Mark says, lots more could have been done re testing on entry, or testing in general when there were a small and more manageable number of cases.
Boris said that the virus was like a mugging. Wrong analogy I think. A mugging comes as a surprise, this seems more like being burgled after leaving the front door open.

 

[mikench]

​

We are still not testing brits returning from abroad in any way. They are testing Chinese citizens on their return to China and placing them in quarantine. Security is more concerned with the terrorist threat than coronavirus.

For the avoidance of doubt I am referring to brits stranded abroad after going trekking or whatever when the country, say Brazil or Argentina, went into lockdown and all flights were cancelled. Surely when we pay for rescue flights all those boarding should be tested either en route or on arrival? Not only are they not being tested or quarantined, we are not even checking who they are , where they are going and who they are mixing with. I cannot comprehend this level of stupidity.

 

[steve2]

Must admit I was a bit surprised to that up to 15000 are still flying into this country and just being sent on their way. We also still have illegal’s crossing the channel from France, an infected country and being sent on their way. Nice to know lockdown doesn't seem to apply to the travelers.

 

[sis the roach]

what might be more to the point is what has this government done for angling cormorants even worse now no one about on the banks if we didn't have the commis. which not every one what's to fish when start as kids you went to a pond catching perch as a kid or river and caught gudgeons all day long you can't catch one to save your life any were now what a kid fish and get that same exciting feeling

 

[davebhoy]

Until very recently we didn’t have the testing capacity to test the thousands of people arriving in the country every day.

What tests we did have were better used testing people in the NHS and key workers

We were quickly past the stage where containing the virus among the general public was a possibility, preventing new cases from coming in was not the best use of our resources while we were still seeing as many new home-grown cases

Test results can take up to four days to come back from the laboratory. In which case you need to quarantine passengers for as long as it takes to get the results back

 

[nottskev]

Until very recently we didn’t have the testing capacity to test the thousands of people arriving in the country every day.

What tests we did have were better used testing people in the NHS and key workers

We were quickly past the stage where containing the virus among the general public was a possibility, preventing new cases from coming in was not the best use of our resources while we were still seeing as many new home-grown cases

Test results can take up to four days to come back from the laboratory. In which case you need to quarantine passengers for as long as it takes to get the results back

It's true that the capacity to test is only now being increased to effective levels.

I suppose you can take the view that they had to make do with what resources were available. But when you are responsible for having in place resources, infrastructure and coherent plans, pointing to lack of resources doesn't get you off the hook.

I remember very clearly the way the initial outbreak was seeded by people returning from virus hotspots eg Italian ski resorts and simply dispersing into their communities, and this was termed "containment".
A brief flirtation with notions of "herd immunity" - allowing infection to spread until buffered by recovered victims - has been abandoned and followed by a swerve into something like normal Public Health strategy for containing and suppressing infectious diseases. Hence the mad scramble to get in place the testing, tracking and isolating tactics that we've seen better prepare, better resourced and better led countries apply with good effect from the start. Let's hope we get this phase right.

 

[davebhoy]

It's true that the capacity to test is only now being increased to effective levels.

I suppose you can take the view that they had to make do with what resources were available. But when you are responsible for having in place resources, infrastructure and coherent plans, pointing to lack of resources doesn't get you off the hook.

I remember very clearly the way the initial outbreak was seeded by people returning from virus hotspots eg Italian ski resorts and simply dispersing into their communities, and this was termed "containment".
A brief flirtation with notions of "herd immunity" - allowing infection to spread until buffered by recovered victims - has been abandoned and followed by a swerve into something like normal Public Health strategy for containing and suppressing infectious diseases. Hence the mad scramble to get in place the testing, tracking and isolating tactics that we've seen better prepare, better resourced and better led countries apply with good effect from the start. Let's hope we get this phase right.

We’ve not done anything different to almost everyone in the world. It’s easy to forget just how quickly the science changed.

Except for from some very specific areas of the world we would have been unlikely to be importing the virus into the country, most people arriving in the UK would have been far more likely to catch it here than arrive on a plane with it.

 

[nottskev]

[We’ve not done anything different to almost everyone in the world. It’s easy to forget just how quickly the science changed.


I'm afraid that's just not true. Countries that pursued aggressive testing, tracking and isolating programmes from the outset, in Asia and in Europe, made a far better job of protecting their population and the figures bear this out
Many people at home and abroad questioned what on earth we were thinking when we were continuing to stage football matches, racing festivals and rock concerts, and keeping schools and universities open whilst deferring lockdown.

There is no "the science". Scientists disagree, and different branches of science - virologists, epidemiologists, infectious disease control experts, behavioural scientists, mathematical modellers etc all have their angles, and their limitations. Governments pay attention to some, at the expense of others.
Traditional Public Health Control of Infectious Disease science has not changed - it's just our government is belatedly realising they should have followed it. These scientists, under-represented in Sage, have been there on the sidelines all along, saying test, track and isolate.

 

[davebhoy]

[We’ve not done anything different to almost everyone in the world. It’s easy to forget just how quickly the science changed.


I'm afraid that's just not true. Countries that pursued aggressive testing, tracking and isolating programmes from the outset, in Asia and in Europe, made a far better job of protecting their population and the figures bear this out
Many people at home and abroad questioned what on earth we were thinking when we were continuing to stage football matches, racing festivals and rock concerts, and keeping schools and universities open whilst deferring lockdown.

There is no "the science". Scientists disagree, and different branches of science - virologists, epidemiologists, infectious disease control experts, behavioural scientists, mathematical modellers etc all have their angles, and their limitations. Governments pay attention to some, at the expense of others.
Traditional Public Health Control of Infectious Disease science has not changed - it's just our government is belatedly realising they should have followed it. These scientists, under-represented in Sage, have been there on the sidelines all along, saying test, track and isolate.

I was talking about how we dealt with people coming into the country, not the overall response to the crisis.

However, did you read my earlier posts about testing in Germany and South Korea? South Korea have been through this before, made the mistakes and learned the lessons, have testing manufacturing facilities set up for just this sort of eventuality already in place and have passed legislation for the sort of intrusion that would never be allowed in this country so the test results can be used to track and prevent the spread very effectively. I listened to a pandemic expert from South Korea on radio 4 describe the process by which the country agreed to have all their phone records and bank details inspected, he said it was extremely unlikely the UK would ever see that sort of legislation pass, if it did it would take a long time and it would be impossible to do in weeks in the midst of the crisis

In Germany their federalised system has been criticized in the past but it has meant that they have a lot of labs, universities s d other manufacturers making tests. We don’t. They were able to start manufacturing tests without government approval so they we’re starting From a position that made mass testing a possibility from very early on. In the same radio 4 program a German expert pointed out that they were now struggling with the same shortage of chemicals to make the tests as everyone else

Here’s a link to the radio 4 program
BBC Radio 4 - The Briefing Room, Coronavirus: What next?

Here’s a link to the Guardian article

Germany's devolved logic is helping it win the coronavirus race | World news | The Guardian

The government has made mistakes, maybe they could have started mass testing earlier, but I’m not sure that it was possible to test on the sort of scale that would have made a serious difference early enough

When I talk about “the science” I mean the understanding of the virus and the way to deal with the outbreak. The advice the government has received from its advisors has changed. It was clear from early on that government policy was being driven by their advisors, who have an excellent reputation - I haven’t heard anyone say anything but good things about them. I’m not sure what the government was supposed to do - ignore the advice of the people they appointed to advise them?

They haven’t realized they should have followed someone else’s advice, they are still listening to the same people they were before who’s advice has changed with the changing situation and understanding.

 

[nottskev]

I was talking about how we dealt with people coming into the country, not the overall response to the crisis

Fair enough. The story of what happened in the first three weeks of March, with disaster looming, the epidemic spreading and the government dithering and delaying lockdown, is one we will be hearing a lot more about. It won't do the government credit.

 

[mikench]

Thousands have been brought back in in the last week with no testing,over 3,000 were allowed in from Madrid( a virus hot spot) with no testing, 250,000 were allowed to go b***** horse racing with no testing; the list is almost endless.

Led by the science ; led over a cliff.

 

[davebhoy]

Fair enough. The story of what happened in the first three weeks of March, with disaster looming, the epidemic spreading and the government dithering and delaying lockdown, is one we will be hearing a lot more about. It won't do the government credit.

It might have seem like the government dithered, but the change in policy happened in a matter of days and was driven by the results of the new modeling from the data coming out of Italy that showed many more people were becoming critically ill than anticipated and what that would mean for the health service.

I might be wrong but from all the data I’ve seen so far we’re experiencing a very similar outcome to almost every other country in a similar situation.

 

[Aknib]

Thousands have been brought back in in the last week with no testing,over 3,000 were allowed in from Madrid( a virus hot spot) with no testing, 250,000 were allowed to go b***** horse racing with no testing; the list is almost endless.

Led by the science ; led over a cliff.

And there are tens of thousands more waiting to be repatriated over the coming weeks from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh alone.

Given the stern messages being put out by the government about lockdown, isolating and keeping the infection rate ratio below 1 I don't buy the 'scientific' statements that those coming in will make little difference to the overall infection rate here in the UK.

More like there's no infrastructure in place to isolate and quarantine the sheer numbers of people returning from abroad so we'll (they'll) invent a sound bite to combat the question and deal with the consequences as they arise.

 

[nottskev]

It might have seem like the government dithered, but the change in policy happened in a matter of days and was driven by the results of the new modeling from the data coming out of Italy that showed many more people were becoming critically ill than anticipated and what that would mean for the health service.

I might be wrong but from all the data I’ve seen so far we’re experiencing a very similar outcome to almost every other country in a similar situation.

On march 2nd, Govt were advised by one of three committees informing Sage that unless "stringent measures" were applied, 80% of pop were likely to be infected, with deaths between 250k and 500k.
At the press conference, Johnson joked about shaking hands with virus victims, and advised washing hands and singing Happy Birthday.

On Friday 13th, Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Valance referred again to "herd immunity", as did David Halpern, of the influential Behavioural Insights Team, and Johnson made his speech about getting ready to lose our "loved ones".

At this point Chief Medical Officer Whitty announced we were giving up on testing and tracking. What were we doing in place of this? It was advised that 70 year olds not go on cruises.

No, the change of policy did not take days. The government dithered for three fatal weeks in March (after being asleep at the wheel in February, when Johnson disappeared for 12 days and missed 4 of 5 Cobra meetings), including that notorious weekend 14th/15th of football, horse racing and rock concerts, when life continued as normal. By mid-March more experts than you could shake a stick at were pleading that "herd immunity" was not a viable option, and begging the government to implement standard infectious disease containment procedures. The government finally announced the lockdown beginning on Friday 20th.

If you disagree with this chronology, please be specific about about dates, announcements and policy changes.

 

[davebhoy]

I don’t see how that chronology shows signs of dithering. It suggests the government did the opposite and stuck to a policy that was led by the advice of the scientists who were advising the government healthy advisors. We’ve heard it from the start, and from everybody since.

In mid March (16 or 17) imperial college produced modeling based on new data from Italy, which suggested that the virus was having a more serious impact than had previously been thought. The modeling suggested a far more serious outcome for the UK.

On March 17 Johnson announced a move into the suppression phase. BY the weekend schools had been shut, all bars restaurants, cinemas etc were also told to shut. By Monday we were in lockdown

The data changed, the advice changed, he acted quickly.

It seems to me that you should be directing your anger at whoever advised him, not Johnson who said he’d act on their advice and did

I’m no Tory apologist, by the way. I have never voted for them and never will and think Boris is a disaster in waiting.

I am also, like everyone no doubt, invested in the debate, in as much as I have elderly parents, one of whom has a heart condition and diabetes and the other has Alzheimer’s. I’ve wanted a lockdown for the good of my dad so he avoids catching it and not wanted it because of what isolation will do for my mum’s condition. My mum has deteriorated badly in the last month, I thought my dad was coming down with covid-19 on Monday, although it looks like it was probably another virus.

 

[nottskev]

Do you think it was only around 16th/17th March that the implications of failing to introduce standard infectious disease control measures were known? There was widespread horror, amongst experts and ordinary people, at where we were heading long before that. To answer your "dithering " question - dire warnings from Sage on March 2nd were met with a lockdown on the 23rd. How many people were infected in that period, with its "normal" life, sports fixtures, festivals and concerts?

I'm not sure how to reply to your "the data" and "the advice" suddenly changed. The writing was on the wall, and it is on the record - from a great number of sources of expertise, some in the government tent, warning the government of how bad things could get, and dating from the end of February.

We clearly won't agree. As far as I'm concerned, Johnson was ineffectual in February and shied away from decisive action for three weeks in March. Application of tried and tested strategies for containing infectious diseases was passed over in favour of a flirtation with "herd immunity" which was dropped but wasted time and allowed the virus to spread, damaging more people and making it harder now to control.

The details of the "the science" ie the who/what/when of the government's chosen sources of advice are becoming more widely known; equally, we can see more clearly how the government's decisions of which "science" to run with and which to sideline have played out.

It's a sorry mess, and the PR narrative - we're following the science - will be recognised more and more as a cynical fiction that translates as we're picking and choosing such science as we find politically compatible, and we'll be pointing at the scientists when things go wrong. I hope the level of scrutiny obliges Johnson and his crew to raise their game from this level.

Disagreeing with you doesn't stop me saying I hope your family stay well, as I hope all the people near me do. I don't care who runs the government in this crisis, but I hope to see things well run.

 

[mikench]

Disagreeing with you doesn't stop me saying I hope your family stay well, as I hope all the people near me do. I don't care who runs the government in this crisis, but I hope to see things well run.

Amen to that. We , the old, young and middle aged deserve better. I have to talk to my dad twice a day to keep reassuring him that I can't come and see him and that mum is ok. The nursing home decided on a lock down in early March which hopefully is working. I won't tempt fate by saying more.

 

[rob48]

Interesting interview with the German expert who was behind what's generally regarded as a successful containment of the virus and often cited as an example of what the UK should have done:

Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy' | World news | The Guardian

"Public Health England was in a position to diagnose the disease very early on – we worked with them to make the diagnostic test – but rollout in Germany was driven in part by market forces, which made it fast, and that wasn’t the case in the UK."

Which makes one wonder what the plethora of NHS Trusts, managers and procurement staff have spent their days doing, besides saying "we've always done it like this"?

 

[nottskev]

Interesting interview with the German expert who was behind what's generally regarded as a successful containment of the virus and often cited as an example of what the UK should have done:

Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy' | World news | The Guardian

"Public Health England was in a position to diagnose the disease very early on – we worked with them to make the diagnostic test – but rollout in Germany was driven in part by market forces, which made it fast, and that wasn’t the case in the UK."

Which makes one wonder what the plethora of NHS Trusts, managers and procurement staff have spent their days doing, besides saying "we've always done it like this"?

What do you think he means exactly by "market forces" in this context?

Prior to this outbreak, belief in market forces had contributed to the degradation of our health service, despite the enormous commitment of its staff, as indicated by numerous studies based on data measuring quality and performance. It was barely managing to cope with our needs before the virus.

Am I reading it right, that you think the government is playing a blinder but is hampered by the inefficiency of the NHS? Its great policies hamstrung by bureaucrats in the health service? Really?

Might it be a factor that Germany spends above European average on health and we spend below it? Their devolved system allowed regions to set and implement policy and testing, and to co-opt labs from business and from universities and medical facilities from the outset. While they were testing, tracking, isolating, we were guinea pigs in a plan, now aborted and disowned, to let the virus spread and rely on alleged immunity, while keeping the old and vulnerable indoors.