corvi 19

[sylvanillo]

Only browsing this thread quickly, but ... it doed make me ask myself how possibly can anyone in this country still defend the govt on their approach to the citizens life protection?

To me it doesn't matter that this is a tories or labour govt. What matters are the people living, surviving, or dying, on their island.

At some point, figures will be known. That on the last day of April 2020, the country was suffering twice the number of deaths reported on bbc. And even then, there will be people happy with this!

The govt declined the NHS report on a pandemy preparation.... And some people will still be happy with this!!

Etc etc etc.

A glass of Merlot will help to survive this.

 

[Aknib]

At some point, figures will be known. That on the last day of April 2020, the country was suffering twice the number of deaths reported on bbc. And even then, there will be people happy with this!

Wow...

That is some statement.

So you're suggesting that the actual death rate from Covid 19 in the UK is currently running at 52k - 53k?

I have little doubt that the government figures are on the low side of what's actually happening, be it intentionally or to do with the complexities and timescale of collating the information but half?

I will be interested to see a source which confirms actual death rates are running at fifty thousand plus, can you provide one?

 

[rob48]

However much Germany, UK, or anybody else spends on health, there's no cure for stupid:

Five already dead by time UK reported first coronavirus death | World news | The Guardian

"Earlier this month, NHS England said its revised records showed the first death occurred on 28 February, but it has now clarified that this was a data entry error. A spokeswoman said: “The actual date of that death was 28 March, and the 28 February had been put in by mistake. The records have been updated.”

So that's alright then, very reassuring.

"The time lag on reporting the deaths has meant the impact of the virus actually hit much earlier than previously acknowledged. By 13 March, the end of the Cheltenham festival when 68,000 people gathered for the Gold Cup, there had been 51 deaths in English hospitals at a time when only 11 deaths in the UK had been announced."

So the NHS were failing to supply accurate real-time data to the government's advisors which would obviously influence their considerations and professional advice.

 

[nottskev]

However much Germany, UK, or anybody else spends on health, there's no cure for stupid:

Five already dead by time UK reported first coronavirus death | World news | The Guardian

"Earlier this month, NHS England said its revised records showed the first death occurred on 28 February, but it has now clarified that this was a data entry error. A spokeswoman said: “The actual date of that death was 28 March, and the 28 February had been put in by mistake. The records have been updated.”

So that's alright then, very reassuring.

"The time lag on reporting the deaths has meant the impact of the virus actually hit much earlier than previously acknowledged. By 13 March, the end of the Cheltenham festival when 68,000 people gathered for the Gold Cup, there had been 51 deaths in English hospitals at a time when only 11 deaths in the UK had been announced."

So the NHS were failing to supply accurate real-time data to the government's advisors which would obviously influence their considerations and professional advice.

I know 8pm is when people come out to clap the NHS

Is 2am when they write bizarre snide footnotes?

I'll keep an appropriate distance from such posts.

 

[Peter Jacobs]

I was chatting to my Norwegian lady friend last night and, like us, they are also under a lock-dwown policy. It looks like it will still be in operation for their Independence Day which is May 17th.

Norway only gained its independence (from Sweden) in 1905 so May 17th is a very special day and is celebrated by everyone.

It is usually a fabulous day with the "barnetog" (children's train) parade in the centre of town and every city, town and village celebrates the same way with most dressed in Bunad (national dress) Most people have a BBQ in the evening with friends and to be honest consderble volumes of alcohol are consumed.

This year will be so very different as sadly no gatherings of more than 4 people are allowed over there . . . .

 

[103841]

I mean no disrespect to my friends here but I find this constant questioning, analysing, promoting of certain theories all a bit bewildering and wonder what purpose it truly serves at this particular moment in time.

I had just a tiny snapshot from the “front line” and I would defy any organisation to be able to offer fast and accurate results.

It was bedlam in there, patients being constantly moved, nurses and doctors carrying huge swathes of paperwork. The nurses gave up writing our names above the bed in the knowledge they would need erasing within an hour or two. I was mistaken for a different patient a few times and it’s just as well you have to give your name and d.o.b. every time, some of the elderly could not even do that.

So to collate all this info in a timely and accurate manner is a mammoth task, take into account also the cause of deaths might be difficult to prove without a post mortem, Covid or Covid related?

As in a war the information coming from government will be tailored and managed in such a way as to hopefully get the population accepting hardships with a dangled carrot not too far away. It is us that has to beat this, the suits in Westminster can only guide us.

Whether the figure is 600 or 900 losses of life is somewhat immaterial to me, every single one is a tradgedy.

I lack some of the nous many have here, my views are simplistic, it’s always been my way, keep it simple whether it’s fishing or putting the world to rights.

 

[rob48]

I know 8pm is when people come out to clap the NHS

Is 2am when they write bizarre snide footnotes?

I'll keep an appropriate distance from such posts.

Very convenient.

I'm not aware what's snide or bizarre in commenting on mainstream newspaper reports and I obviously failed to notice the site opening hours in the T&Cs.

 

[nottskev]

I mean no disrespect to my friends here but I find this constant questioning, analysing, promoting of certain theories all a bit bewildering and wonder what purpose it truly serves at this particular moment in time.

I had just a tiny snapshot from the “front line” and I would defy any organisation to be able to offer fast and accurate results.

It was bedlam in there, patients being constantly moved, nurses and doctors carrying huge swathes of paperwork. The nurses gave up writing our names above the bed in the knowledge they would need erasing within an hour or two. I was mistaken for a different patient a few times and it’s just as well you have to give your name and d.o.b. every time, some of the elderly could not even do that.

So to collate all this info in a timely and accurate manner is a mammoth task, take into account also the cause of deaths might be difficult to prove without a post mortem, Covid or Covid related?

As in a war the information coming from government will be tailored and managed in such a way as to hopefully get the population accepting hardships with a dangled carrot not too far away. It is us that has to beat this, the suits in Westminster can only guide us.

Whether the figure is 600 or 900 losses of life is somewhat immaterial to me, every single one is a tradgedy.

I lack some of the nous many have here, my views are simplistic, it’s always been my way, keep it simple whether it’s fishing or putting the world to rights.

I respect your experience of finding yourself at the sharp end, and I'm pleased you're back. I don't feel in any way disrespected by your comments. Equally, there's no disrespect intended in my replying.

Your account of life in the hospital is eye-opening and entirely valid. And I agree that collecting accurate stats and using them is problematic. It's true we have to get through it, and I'm sure people are trying to act, by and large, in ways that help each other. I've been in the house for a month now, and I've resisted complaining about it, and I've cancelled medical appointments simply because I don't dare attend the hospital. I can't adequately express my admiration for those who go to work in them, and other medical facilities, every day.

But I make no apology for questioning and analysing evolving government policy. The questioning, whether it's from politicians, medical and health professionals, journalists or members of the public, is essential in keeping governments "honest", bringing things we're entitled to know into the public domain, and obliging them to justify the policies they run with and account for their apparent results. We wouldn't want to live in the kind of country where governments are not exposed to scrutiny and questioning in that way. Should we wait til later to ask all the questions? Part of the point is that pressure pushes government to address uncomfortable facts and to change course when doing the wrong things or neglecting the right ones, and we can hope that because of it their handling of the crisis henceforth will be more effective than it has been so far.
I would be horrified to think how it would be if we all just shut up and let them get on with it.

 

[103841]

“Should we wait til later to ask all the questions”?

I believe so Kev, there’s just a slim chance you might then and only then get the right answers.

I totally agree we should “attempt” to keep our government honest but at the moment whilst the virus loaded bullets are still flying around everywhere they need to focus on stopping that and that alone.

 

[108831]

“Should we wait til later to ask all the questions”?

I believe so Kev, there’s just a slim chance you might then and only then get the right answers.

I totally agree we should “attempt” to keep our government honest but at the moment whilst the virus loaded bullets are still flying around everywhere they need to focus on stopping that and that alone.[/



Agreed,the constant questioning,seems to allude to greater knowledge of the data and how to use it than the experts who advise any govt in power,whoever that may be,I shall now run and hide in a corner awaiting a bombardment of facts that have little meaning until all information is put together for analysis,something that none on FM have and possibly no ability to give any cunning plan to take us forward either!!!

 

[103841]

The question I would like to ask to Kev and others.

Would you truly know if the absolute truth was presented to you was absolutely true?

 

[nottskev]

The question I would like to ask to Kev and others.

Would you truly know if the absolute truth was presented to you was absolutely true?

I would say that's not really the point of the questioning and analysis, and nobody, so far as I know, is looking for THE truth. ( I would say, though, that most of us know when we're being told things that absolutely aren't true)

The kinds of questions which feed our understanding of what the govt are doing and why, and how well it is working are of this sort ( with specific details for the occasion)

What is the rationale behind your strategy of X and why this rather than other possible and plausible approaches?

What do you say to the many highly qualified critics who point to specific weaknesses A,B,C etc and omissions in your current policy and point to the questionable results it has yielded so far?

Why have we been so slow in beginning to apply standard procedures, long established in the control of infectious disease, such as testing, tracking and isolating, and what are the plans to get this working fully?

And so on. It's not about badgering busy people with pointless questions, or dragging officials through the mud. It's about insisting the government - of whatever party - treats the population like adults, holding them to account for the massive responsibility they take on when they ask for the job, and obliging them to recognise when they need to modify their strategy in the light of unfolding events and scrutiny. As far as I, and many others, can tell, they've only really been galvanised into effective action by the sheer volume of concerns, doubts and questions expressed in everything from the Sun to The Lancet.

 

[mikench]

It was Macmillan who replied, when asked by a new mp what he should watch out for in politics, “ events dear boy events”

The truth absolute or otherwise will out and if this government is then taken to account who will personally carry the can . I’ll bet the science will be in the frame . I hope there will be a public enquiry which will not be instigated by the current government but the next.

Boris never imagined the last 4 months in his worst nightmare.

 

[davebhoy]

I would say that's not really the point of the questioning and analysis, and nobody, so far as I know, is looking for THE truth. ( I would say, though, that most of us know when we're being told things that absolutely aren't true)

The kinds of questions which feed our understanding of what the govt are doing and why, and how well it is working are of this sort ( with specific details for the occasion)

What is the rationale behind your strategy of X and why this rather than other possible and plausible approaches?

What do you say to the many highly qualified critics who point to specific weaknesses A,B,C etc and omissions in your current policy and point to the questionable results it has yielded so far?

Why have we been so slow in beginning to apply standard procedures, long established in the control of infectious disease, such as testing, tracking and isolating, and what are the plans to get this working fully?

And so on. It's not about badgering busy people with pointless questions, or dragging officials through the mud. It's about insisting the government - of whatever party - treats the population like adults, holding them to account for the massive responsibility they take on when they ask for the job, and obliging them to recognise when they need to modify their strategy in the light of unfolding events and scrutiny. As far as I, and many others, can tell, they've only really been galvanised into effective action by the sheer volume of concerns, doubts and questions expressed in everything from the Sun to The Lancet.

I’m not sure what the level of communication you seem to feel entitled to actually achieves, except for making people feel less anxious and more able to criticize. We elect governments to govern in crises, not communicate strategies in order that people who aren’t experts like you and me can decide on the correct path to take.

The government didn’t put the country into lockdown because of what was written in the sun or anywhere else. The data changed, the modeling that the data was feeding showed many many more people would die than they’d previously thought and they quickly realized that there was no other option.

That’s how the Guardian reports it

How can coronavirus models get it so wrong? | World news | The Guardian

“One moment the prime minister, Boris Johnson, was asking people with symptoms to stay home for seven days; a few days later, he had ordered a lockdown. What changed was data from Italy’s experience of the pandemic, in which more people were critically ill than anticipated, and from the NHS about its inability to cope if the same should happen in the UK.”

 

[nottskev]

Where would you fish? I'd go for that corner peg.



Btw. The building behind is the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

 

[nottskev]

I’m not sure what the level of communication you seem to feel entitled to actually achieves, except for making people feel less anxious and more able to criticize. We elect governments to govern in crises, not communicate strategies in order that people who aren’t experts like you and me can decide on the correct path to take.

The government didn’t put the country into lockdown because of what was written in the sun or anywhere else. The data changed, the modeling that the data was feeding showed many many more people would die than they’d previously thought and they quickly realized that there was no other option.

That’s how the Guardian reports it

How can coronavirus models get it so wrong? | World news | The Guardian

“One moment the prime minister, Boris Johnson, was asking people with symptoms to stay home for seven days; a few days later, he had ordered a lockdown. What changed was data from Italy’s experience of the pandemic, in which more people were critically ill than anticipated, and from the NHS about its inability to cope if the same should happen in the UK.”

"Seem to feel entitled"? Odd way to conceive it. Perhaps you feel I'm not? Governments - in democracies - explain and justify policies in a dialectic that involves opposition parties and the media, alongside a range of mechanisms aimed to probe and test their policies and the assumptions behind them.

Do I imagine government officials log into FM and say Nottskev has a good point? Sure. But there is continuity between the fora in which much cleverer people than us conduct their debates and the way the discourses of ordinary people chew over the issues. Again, you miss the interplay: the top level brainy stuff filters down to people, and the views of people - are we happy with this course? do we trust you? - filter up to influence politics. Meanwhile, as people, or those who choose to, inform themselves and discuss things, the level of general understanding increases, which helps people improve their political c**p detectors and raises the bar for government.

The idea that the only necessary piece you need to understand the policy swerve is the Italian data in mid March makes it all a bit one-dimensional. Sage had provided forecasts of "herd immunity" disaster at the start of March, and many more besides did so in the time between. Government continues to deny it was the plan, and so can hardly explain why the plan changed. The idea that public opinion was irrelevant and counts for nothing would come as a surprise to governments, which invest heavily in monitoring it, influencing it and courting it.

If, as you say "we elect governments to govern", would that we had one that did a bit more of it in February and March.

 

[David Rogers 3]

One of the things that worries me in all this is just how many people believe some of the conspiracy theories that are flying around. The ones that speculate whether the virus is natural or man-made don't exactly risk lives, but those that do are the ones (mainly from the USA) which claim that lockdown will destroy our immune systems, leaving us vulnerable to anything going once we're "let out" again and which advocate going back to the herd immunity approach asap. One of these in particular is from a qualified doctor. It's only when you dig a little deeper (which I have done) that you find he and his partner are ex-hospital doctors who are now running their own private business. Despite being taken down by YouTube and other platforms, this one keeps re-appearing. You can't argue with conspiracy theorists who believe every attempt to protect the public from mis-information is just censorship from on high and that those "freedom fighters" who keep re-posting this tripe are the real heroes. ACEP and AAEM condemn opinions made by Accelerated Urgent Care doctors | KBAK

 

[mikench]

At the outset of this pandemic when it was just an epidemic in Wuhan, my nearest City, Manchester, was full of sympathy for this terrible affliction affecting its twin city.

No mention of this relationship since. I wonder why?

 

[nottskev]

How many beans make 5?

They use to count completed Covid19 tests. But I'm reading Revealed: How government changed the rules to hit 100,000 tests target | News | Health Service Journal that to get the number up to 100,000 per day, up to 50,000 of the tests that will be reported as having taken place on 30th April will actually represent the mailing of, or the agreeing to the mailing of, a home testing kit.

But as a non-expert, I feel entirely unqualified to comment.

 

[Peter Jacobs]

Here's a thought . . . when is a "test" actually fone?

Is it when the physical part is done, (the swab of the nose and mouth) or is it when the results come back?

I think Hancock will be telling us that he has reached his 100,000 "tests" but not all the results have been issued . . . .

I hope I'm wrong . . .